Covid Lockdown Cost/Benefits:A Critical Assessment of the LiteratureDouglas W. Allen∗April 2021

ABSTRACTAn examination of over 80 Covid-19 studies reveals that many relied on assump-tions that were false, and which tended to over-estimate the benefits and under-estimate the costs of lockdown. As a result, most of the early cost/benefit studiesarrived at conclusions that were refuted later by data, and which rendered theircost/benefit findings incorrect. Research done over the past six months has shownthat lockdowns have had, at best, a marginal effect on the number of Covid-19deaths. Generally speaking, the ineffectiveness of lockdown stems from volun-tary changes in behavior. Lockdown jurisdictions were not able to prevent non-compliance, and non-lockdown jurisdictions benefited from voluntary changes inbehavior that mimicked lockdowns. The limited effectiveness of lockdowns ex-plains why, after one year, the unconditional cumulative deaths per million, andthe pattern of daily deaths per million, is not negatively correlated with the stringency of lockdown across countries. Using a cost/benefit method proposed by Professor Bryan Caplan, and using two extreme assumptions of lockdown effectiveness, the cost/benefit ratio of lockdowns in Canada, in terms of life-years saved, is between 3.6–282. That is, it is possible that lockdown will go down asone of the greatest peacetime policy failures in Canada’s history.∗email: allen@sfu.ca. Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada.Thanks to various colleagues and friends for their comments. Study http://www.sfu.ca/~allen/LockdownReport.pdf