Climate Change Adaptation in the Okanagan Conference. Kelowna BC. May 31, 2002. Jorma Jyrkkanen's Notes.

Beyond Emissions. Kelowna Climate Change Forum Synopsis. Beyond Emissions: Climate Change Forum; What Can We Expect From Climate Change? May 30th and May 31st 2002; Kelowna BC

The following are my notes from the Forum, and submissions by Presenters so by all means go to the source for definitive works. Thursday, May 30 at OUC KLO Campus Theater 7:00 PM Introduction 7:15: Wendy Avis, Environment Canada-Canada’s climate change status and programs. The positions are well covered and critiqued by Author Guy Dauncy below. The Canadian government is looking for inputs from Canadians this summer in an effort to firm up its position. Downloadable copies of Canada Position with Emission Data and Trends; Also Resources for Action and Draft Plan for Kyoto (New on Oct. 24th, 2002): http://www.climatechange.gc.ca http://www.ec.gc.ca/pdb/ghg/ghg_docs/gh_eng.pdf 7:30 Jenny Fraser, jenny.fraser@gems8.gov.bc.ca Climate Change Section, Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection topic: Impacts of climate change during the 21st Century-An overview of changes in temperature, precipitation, and impacts on related systems across BC. The study concurs that climate change is happening and graphs of CO2 and temperature going back 1000 years confirm the trends and show that the major changes have happened since the industrial revolution. Provincial trends demonstrate statistically significant trends in most climate change parameters that were considered with generally higher levels in parameters further north. The 'noise' created by El Nino, La Nina, and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) were filtered by examination of time trends to extract climate change influences. Past impacts from 100 years of historical data and projections for the next century are that: 1. Average annual temperature warmed by 0.6 deg C on the coast, 1.1 deg C in the interior, 1.7 deg C in northern BC. Averge overall to increase by 1 to 4 deg C. 2. Night-time temperatures increased across most of BC in spring and summer. [Will probably increase-JJ] 3. Precipitation increased by 2 to 4 % per decade. It may increase by 10 to 20%. 4. Lakes and rivers became free of ice earlier in the spring. Some interior rivers may dry up during summer and early fall. 5. Sea level temperatures increased by 0.9 deg C to 1.8 deg C along the BC coast. [Will probably increase-JJ] 6. Sea level rose by 4 to 12 cm along most of the BC coast. [Will probably increase-JJ] 7. The Fraser river discharges more of its annual flow earlier in the years. [Will probably get even earlier-JJ] 8. Water in the Fraser river is warmer in summer. Salmon migration patterns are likely to change. 9. More heat energy is available for plant and insect growth. The mountain pine beetle is likely to expand its range. 10. Two large BC glaciers retreated by more than a kilometre each. Small ones are expected to disappear in the next century. Climate change may influence the frequency of extreme weather events, extent of permafrost, ecosystem structures and processes, species distribution and survival. All of this will have effects on fish, wildlife, plant and human society. [For example, though they don't mention it, in BC coastal waters, we are finding tropical predatory fish for the first time, and Cattle Egrets from Africa in Squamish, and on Vancouver Island, the deadly tropical disease, Cryptococcus neoformans while in the Niagra area of Ontario, West Nile Virus. These findings suggest climate change influences on range expansion of beneficial species as well as pathogens. For info on El Nino and PDO-JJ] http://eos-chem.gsfc.nasa.gov/instruments/mls/elnino.html http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/graphics.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.html Downloadable copies of detailed study located at: http://www.gov.bc.ca/wlap http://wlapwww.gov.bc.ca/air http://wlapwww.gov.bc.ca/air/climate/index.html#indicators 7:45 Tina Neale, tneale@sdri.ubc.ca Sustainable Development Research Institute UBC Potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Okanagan based on 2001 research paper 'Water Management and Climate Change in the Okanagan Basin' by Stewart Cohen and Tanuja Kulkarni. Environment Cda and UBC. Development of climate change impact scenarios on hydrology in 2002 and 2004. Temperature to rise 1-2.5 deg C from 1961-1990 base period to the 2020's, and 3-5 deg C by 2080's. Higher precipitation is expected for winter, but models differ on what will happen in summer. Recent warming has led to changes in stream flow. Observed changes in unregulated streams include earlier onset of the annual spring peak by as much as four to six weeks, lower peak volumes, lower fall flows and higher early winter flows with all areas showing loss of winter snowpack. Regulated streams are showing decreases in discharge. Earlier peak flows and lower flows in lower elevations streams with low late summer flows. In higher elevation streams there may be more water or the same but flow timing is affected. No consensus on scenario changes to total annual flows. Structural measures were options chosen by stake holders when considering adaptation mechanisms and comments indicated a need for more research and outreach. Copies of study available at (2.676K pdf format): http://www.sdri.ubc.ca http://www.sdri.ubc.ca/documents/Water_Management_and_Climate_Change_in_the_Okanagan_Basin.pdf 8:15 Dr. Milt McLaren, SFU Professor Emeritus, Climate Change Education-Why is it difficult to teach about climate change? We need timely public response to this issue. Why is this so challenging? Misconceptions abound and we don't need more science to prove anything. We just need to present existing findings in a way that people can understand so that misconceptions are cleared up. Most troubling were his comments on methane reservoirs tied up in the ocean's continental shelves [clathrates or methane hydrates-JJ] which can be released by a rise of only 0.5 deg C in sea temperature and the methane tied up by tundra reservoirs in permafrost which can also be released by global warming. When the methane, a [27X, (10-20X->by others)] more powerful Greenhouse gas than CO2, is released by global warming and the volumes are plugged in by Modelers, he said there was a tipping point which launched a positive feed-back loop leading to the run-away dooms-day scenario and we might end up looking like Venus. Too hot for life. References on this critical issue: http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tar/wg1/134.htm http://www.nsc.org/ehc/climate/ccucla5.htm http://www.gaiabooks.co.uk/environment/tundra_warming.html http://www.asf.alaska.edu/daac_documents/cdrom_docs/30228.html http://www.iclei.org/efacts/greengas.htm http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/education/events/cowen1c.html http://ethomas.web.wesleyan.edu/ees123/clathrate.htm http://www.mbari.org/ghgases/peerart/hydmodel.html Apparently, tundra wetlands are a massive source of methane and tundra forests are a sink. Which will predominate in global warming is then the question as is the question of what will ocean warming do to the liberation of submarine methane reservoirs and how soon will it happen at present trends? A critical problem assessment needs to be done because there is conflicting data out there.-JJ Clearly we need to do whatever is needed at whatever cost or sacrifice, to ensure that ocean methane reservoirs don't burp. Q? Are there other surprises lurking with the other identified greenhouse gases; ie: nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride, CO2, viz. a viz. release reservoirs? Makes one realize how dangerous President Bush's and Prime Minister Cretien's waffling on environment is.-JJ] 8:30 Dr. Mindy Brugmann, glaciologist-Climate Change Research on Illecilleweat Glacier, Glacier National Park. Mindy said basically that Illecilleweat glacier is retreating as are most glaciers in BC and it is also thinning. These changes are attributed to climate change and are greatly influenced by short term and long term oceanic temperature cycles which in turn are influenced by global warming. There will be important and negative impacts on a variety of parameters including late summer water flow, peak flows, timing of flows, volume of flow, local climate- to name a few. I mentioned the Blake expeditions to the Himalayas and the fact that they found that the melt is highest at higher elevations and Himalayan lakes are threatening to overflow and wipe out huge numbers of people down slope. [My question is: Will global warming temperatures rise more sharply when the majority of glaciers have vanished as they seem to be doing and may the loss of their their moderating influence make a tipping event scenario more likely? Comment: small glaciers have vanished in the past century. See http://www.geocities.com/jormabio/archive/disappearing_glaciers.html -JJ] Coverage of previous similar presentations: http://www.tv.cbc.ca/national/pgminfo/glacier http://www.cmiae.org/research/climatechange.htm Friday, May 31st at Okanagan Regional Library 1380 Ellis Street 9:30 – 4:30 p.m.. Speakers, Workshop and Panel 9:30 Dr. Andrew J. Weaver, FRSC weaver@uvic.ca U Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Scientists-Topic: What is climate change? Climate change is the statistical analysis of trends in climate parameters, not our subjective assessment of weather based upon memory. Long term measurements are the only way to get at the information and media make mockery of the science by posting nonsensical anecdotal arguments of non-believers and believers. Science is the solution to arguments. Yes, global warming is happening and CO2 has always been involved in it. IPPC 2001 says that there is "New and stronger evidence in the past 50 years that temperature increases are attributable to humans." Global mean 370 ppm is 70 ppm over max ever seen before during interglacial. Both methane and CO2 have shown major peaks in the past 400,000 years and these coincided with major warming during the interglacial epochs. Climate warms during the interglacial due to rising CO2 and cools during the glacial periods but, we have never seen anything like the CO2 levels at present, so there is a real issue to deal with. The Northern hemisphere is, relative to southern latitudes, more affected by greenhouse gases as is the land area and night-time lows are increasing faster than daytime highs. Storm events are increasing in frequency and this will lead to huge costs in infrastructure and insurance. Future projection is 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 if no Kyoto. If Kyoto goes ahead as per present target, temperature will be 1.92 deg C. Kyoto must be strengthened and the goal needs to be strengthened to 4X pre industrial Greenhouse gases so we need to cut emissions by 50% by 2010. Basically, as is Kyoto is irrelevant. Antarctica is warming in the periphery but cooling in the center. No single event is attributable to GG. Policy works, CFC's are down and will be gone in 50 years from now. Make effective policy is the message. We need models and upgrades constantly. Mitigation is likely to fail and is pie in the sky since one solution will create another problem. He used the "The King and the Mice and the Cheese Game" analogy. The only solution was to quit eating cheese. Ergo we need to quit consuming hydrocarbons. [Climate engineering is being thought of by some as a solution to global warming. A reference for those interested in reviewing this controversial ecosystem damaging approach-JJ]: http://www.chooseclimate.org/cleng/cleng.html Alternatives that can work are nuclear, hydrogen fuel cell, and solar and wind. Tidal is being explored by Australia. "Combating global climate change is about global security!" (Investors start moving your money-the best brains are giving a clue to market futures here! However, nuclear is bound to be controversial because of the potential pollution by radio-active substances. Jorma Comment). Dr. Weaver's Climate Website: http://wikyonos.seos.uvic.ca/climate-lab.html 10:00 Guy Dauncy, Author, guydauncy@earthfuture.com http://www.earthfuture.com Author Stormy Weather-topic: Climate Change Solutions. Guy favors a positive approach and also using regulations to drive switching to alternate energy technological innovation and he says there is evidence that investment will follow. Targeted measures are best and do it bit by bit. First in to the alternate technology will capture leadership in global market share and can sell the technology to the world. Heritage solar shingles will be competitive in cost and efficiency possibly as soon as 2005 at $1.00/Watt. 10,000 m^2 of Nevada at 17% efficiency, can supply all of the US power requirements. http://www.zeenrgy.com. North sea aricity of offshore wind shows it as viable alternative and BC has similar potential for wind. Vehicles can go hydrogen gas electric (HGE) for 80 mpg and save enormously on GG's. Alternatives work and can save us. Investment should start immediately. Sinks are a scam and credits are a cop-out, and oil companies have shown that they can increase their efficiency enormously and thereby save on GG's and GW. For full and actual text see below. Full detailed talk available at: http://www.geocities.com/jormabio/climate/guy_skelownapaper.doc 10:30 Jim Vanderwal, jvanderwal@fraserbasin.bc.ca BC Climate Exchange (formerly the HUB Public Education and Outreach Office) and Fraser Basin Council. Jim gave a number of web sites where good things can be found. His organization acts through improving education and corporate behavior. they are involved in transportation, education and teachers. He talks about sustainable industry, energy efficiency, green buildings, workplace education, renewable energy, smartgrowth, and mobilization by connecting to personal interests, leadership and by providing a clearinghouse for educational resources. He provides web sites which promote aspects of their approach and his group is actively involved in web site development. Web Sites of interest suggested by Jim: http://www.betterbuildings.ca http://www.bcyhdro.com http://www.kepp.org http://www.energy.ca http://www.energyaware.bc.ca http://www.best.bc.ca http://www.nccp.ca http://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca 10:45 Rob Scherer, Forest Research Extension Partnership (FORREX), Extension Specialist with the Watershed Management Program at Okanagan University College. Rob talked about Dr. Peter Dill's work with Kokanee which are being stressed by increasing stream temperatures. Eggs are killed by stream temps over 14 deg C and these are more and more common in recent times. Spawning success also affected. Looking for solutions like using reservoirs to maintain water supply. A guest raised the question of impacts of climate change on forestry. Two issues arose. Bark beetles and migration of ecosystems. I had researched this issue previously and mentioned that bark beetles are in epidemic now because extremes of cold temperature are no longer happening due to global warming and so the beetles are surviving winters. Adding to this are fire protection forest management practices which have created huge stands of vulnerable mature pine, and therefore the cost of beetle recovery is directly attributable to global warming. [Fires used to take these stands out naturally in pre-contact times.] I mentioned also that hardwood forests are migrating northwards displacing our softwoods. I disagreed with him on the ability of ecosystems to adapt in all cases. I had seen modeling work from American scientists predicting that ecosystem migration rates may exceed the adaptation rate of many species. The Chairman brought up the issue that tree species being planted today need to be those than can tolerate the changed ecosystems of tomorrow. [For forest management purposes in BC, ecosystems are differentiated on the basis of temperature, moisture and nutrients to name a few parameters, and temperature and moisture are certainly changing due to global warming phenomena]. Access information: http://www.forrex.org/home/home.asp http://royal.okanagan.bc.ca/kokanee/links.htm 11:00 Russ Haycock, http://www.fcm.ca Federation of Canadian Municipalities The FCM Partners for Protection program. Russ has been involved in 25 Municipal Greenhouse Action Plans and is a great contact for cities like Kelowna. Russ explained that there exists a Federation of Canadian Municipalities for Sustainable Development and they have Formed Partners for Climate Protection with objectives-Reduce Greenhouse gas emissions, Develop local action plans, lead by example and collaboration, and provide 50% Green funds for action plans. Municipalities can show leadership and make enormous saving in energy and reduce emissions by things like; building retrofits, diverting solid wastes, upgrading water and waste water treatment facilities, improving the vehicle fleets etc. He suggests that people get a Political Champion to help move these objectives through communities and that we think Global. Material available at: http://www.fcm.ca/newfcm/Java/frame.htm 11:15 Lunch 12:30 Marnie Olson BEd. and Deb Calderone, marnie.olson@gvrd.bc.ca Whats the Fuss? GVRD Climate Change Workshop. Material and support for education on climate change for teachers available at the web site below or by contacting Marnie or Deb. Excellent teaching resources and workshop techniques for teachers of Socials Studies or Earth Sciences 11 especially but also good for teacher training workshops on this subject. Brainstorming technique application. Really gets climate issues through to students. Four terrific booklets, Poster, and other resources available. The booklets are: 1. Lets Clear the Air, Intermediate air quality education program. GVRD. 2. What's all the fuss? Climate Change Teaching strategies with the 'Temperature Rising' poster for Southwestern British Columbia. A curriculum to explore the concepts of our connection to climate change concerns, causes, potential impacts and possible actions. 3. Pamphlet. Lets Clear the Air. A primary activity book. GCRD. 4. Pamphlet. Climate Change in the Classroom. 8 pages. Make sure you ask for the posters. Our Workshop study group reviewed sea level rise and came up with impacts including huge numbers of deaths, and dislocatons, increase in hunger and starvation and population densities inland, loss of fisheries and agriculture, increased costs of everything. Famine and disease. In southern BC we would lose Lulu Island, Delta, Richmond, Steveston; Roberts Bank, the International Airport at Vancouver, Ports and Estuary facilities all over BC, fisheries production from estuaries, and tsunami dangers would also increase enormously. All the homes and work places there would be rendered worthless. People would have to move and they would lose their jobs. Places like Indonesia and Bangladesh would lose enormous amounts of land and homes for people and liveli-hoods and many would die or be dislocated to refugee camps. Fish and wildlife and biodiversity would suffer enormously globally. Contact and materials at: http://www.gvrd.bc.ca 2:30 Water Issues Panel- Participants: Neil Klassen, Kelowna Water Smart; Up costs & Conservation message. stewardship@sylix.org; Michelle Boshard, Brian Symonds, Dr. Denise Neilson Phd, Research Scientist, Ag. Cda.NEILSEND@EM.AGR.CA Denise talked about forthcoming water issues for orchard tree crops related to projected climate warming and concluded that there would be a longer summer season with considerably hotter earlier spring and an extended fall. There would be an increase of 28% by 2050 for plant water demand and 37% increased irrigation demand. Demand will exceed supply in tributary drainage orchards. She discussed how we might adapt and cited a number of options a few of which include change species, move upslope, improve conservation, and promote subsurface drip. Contact and study available through:http://res.agr.ca/summer/parc.htm Howie Right; Okanagan Aboriginal Peoples' Fisheries Commission. Expressed specific concerns for Kokanee Fisheries Resource and issues surrounding development impacts and water supply. Also cut-backs by FRBC WRP for fisheries habitat restoration projects. Howie cited a number of WRP past projects completed. Severe decline of stocks has resulted from changes brought about by growth of human population in the Okanagan to the point where they are no longer used as a food fish. A participant informed me that there were pesticide toxicology studies underway on the Okanagan lake fish presently. Though Howie gave me no reference, for those interested in the plight of the kokanee I suggest the following link: http://royal.okanagan.bc.ca/kokanee/links.htm Wendy Avis, See above, Day 1. Tina Neale; tneale@sdri.ubc.ca Tina gave a mini presentation similar to yesterdays regarding research paper; 'Water Management and Climate Change in the Okanagan Basin' by Stewart Cohen and Tanuja Kulkarni. Environment Cda and UBC. Paper available from: scohen@sdri.ubc.ca Web Site Hosted by Jorma Jyrkkanen, Forum Participantjormabio@hotmail.com To see what is happening to global temperatures by hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere (NH) from dendroclimatology in particular; you may wish to visit the following sites: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/climon/data/themi/ http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ei/ei_reconsa.html To monitor the climate see http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/climon/ The sun is in a hot cycle or trend at present so it appears to be having an impact on warming. Volcanic dust and gases have been postulated to cool equatorial waters in the past reducing the north-south sea temperature gradient thereby stopping ocean transport of heat and oxygen leading to a sinking of warm water and a disasterous methane degassing. To see what role volcanic dust and solar inputs might play relative to carbon dioxide and NH temperature see this site: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ei/ei_reconsc.html To see what folks in California just south of us have found due to climate change and what they are thinking about and doing about global warming, check out this site: http://www.caglobalwarming.org/ What was noteworthy about this Forum is that none of the experts disputed that there was a problem or that we needed to take effective measures and to act more decisively than we have done to date. The 'methane hydrates' or 'clathrates' issue is not going to go away. It is an unknown in the global warming equation, with a devastating potential if we tweak the wrong buttons. The earth might be able to recover from a methane hydrate meltdown but probably not before Crockodilians were living in Norway again. If the cold water current stops circulating cold Arctic water to the Atlantic deep, there could be a severe warming of the tropical and temperate seas with devastating consequences for methane release from these clathrates. This scenario is one possibility after the Arctic Ice vanishes in about 2050 (My theory, 2004). More than anything, this issue points to the fact that we need a pro-active high profile green world leader to champion the cause of global warming and we need immediate commitments by all nations, rich and poor, to fight for a clean planet living in sustainable harmony with its ecosphere. Striking was the positive tone of this forum based on the fact that there are many solutions but we need to act and get the economy working alongside of science to solve these problems and create a survivable future for our planet. The opportunity created by these vital challenges is enormous and should be seen as a positive incentive for political policy and social infrastructure and money markets to move into efficiency technology and enhanced sustainability. This initiative would also enhance global security. Young people need to be at the leading edge of this movement. Another very useful organization to link with which enables researchers with funding and in developing adaptation action strategies is the C-CIARN BC Climate Exchange which can be accessed at BC-CIARN Jorma. original at http://www.geocities.com/jormabio/index.html now no longer operative. Copyright 2002 Jorma Jyrkkanen. All rights reserved. 0 00 Posts with tag Mercury Link to Arctic Fox Declines Probably due to Atmospheric Acidic Accumulation Sudden Formation of Greenland Ice Sheet Suggested by Pine in Basal Core. Global Atmospheric CO2 passes 400 ppm First Time in Two Million Years No comments yet Post a new comment jorma_jyrkkanen May 15 2013, 09:22 0 00 Mercury Link to Arctic Fox Declines Probably due to Atmospheric Acidic Accumulation Mercury Link to Arctic Fox Declines Probably due to Atmospheric Acidic Accumulation 15 May 2013 Arctic fox are in decline and the culprit is thought to be mercury. So why is it suddenly a problem? Its not. The problem has been building for some time. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22425219 The Arctic is a collecting area for northern hemispheric global winds where gases in those winds cool and volatile substances condense and drop onto the substrate, be it water, ice or land. One of the biggest most dangerous components of those winds are the acids with pesticides a close runner up. There is sulfur dioxide (SO2), sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and many kinds of sulfur gases in abundance from various north hemispheric mills and there is also nitrous oxide (N2O) and the ever ubiquitous CO2. These are gaseous green house gas spin offs of fossil fuel combustion that excacerbate the impacts of global warming on animal species. When you acidify soils, bound mercury becomes labile and enters the water runoff. It is likely that the sequestering capacity of the oceans are already full for CO2 with conversion of CO2 into acid and return to the atmospheric buildup. The addition of these other anthropogenic acids probably contributes to reducing ocean sequestering even more and adds to higher acidity overall and increases mercury lability and mobility into the Arctic ocean and up the food chain. This is likely the story in the Arctic. When it reaches the oceans, bacteria convert it to more bioconcentrating forms which then move up the food chain and into those animals like seals and whales which Arctic fox feed upon. This problem is more acute in the arctic because there is circumpolar drainage into arctic waters from northern hemisphere rivers draining the zones of acid accumulation. Canada, the USA, China, Russia and the EU have many mills spewing these contaminants into global air sheds. Mercury once bound in the benthic sediment is possibly being made more labile and water soluble by bacterial action. Many predator fish have elevated mercury simply due to natural mercury in the environment. Excretion normally balances that out at survivable levels, but the balance is narrow for larger predators and can easily be exceeded. Tuna and Shark and Swordfish for example have naturally high levels. The bad news is that if fox are being polluted and reproduction is declining, then sea birds, fish eating eagles, polar bears and Orcas are probably not far behind because mercy affects not only nervous systems, but targets the reproductive systems of many species. Copyright Jorma Jyrkkanen. All rights reserved.